rare info & profitable info & prediction mistakes

point
    [1] neural network in brain, 
          select maximize value choice in selections
        
    [2] when reward to neural network in brain are too big,
         neural network in brain, select the hypothesis

    [3] if we predict high value of info, without theory,
         we may mistake some prediction

how neurons in each player, select choice ?
    [1] neurons predict future  
    [2] neurons calculates reward of neurons 
    [3] neurons select future with maximize profit

advices

   [1] reward to players brain & profit prediction to player in real world, sometime not equal
   [2] reward to players brain & profit prediction to player in virtual world, sometime not equal
   [3] some of us, can control profit to players brain

high reward prediction to neurons
    [1] rare possibility prediction
    [2] exciting prediction
    [3] high return prediction

    rare possibility prediction, gives many reward to neurons
        [1] neurons predict rare possibility event
        [2] neurons evaluate rare possibility event = rare information
        [3] neurons are think rare information = high value

    exciting prediction, also gives many reward to neurons 
        [1] neurons predict exciting event
        [2] neurons get energy from prediction
        [3] neurons select event, with exciting prediction

    high return prediction, also gives many reward to neurons 
        [1] neurons predict high return event
        [2] neurons get energy from prediction
        [3] neurons select hypothesis, with high return event

lets calculate possible return.

   possible return = reward of event A x possibility + reward of event B x possibility + reward of event C x possibility  + ...

   advice
   (1) when super high return event F, add into predictions
   (2) even if possibility of event F = small, possible return increase
   (3) action of player, change with event F
   

when we believe intuition from neurons,
we may select next prediction
    [1] rare possibility prediction
    [2] exciting prediction
    [3] high return prediction 

we may mistake prediction ? or we may success prediction ?

    if all of us share high return prediction, our action become positive
    [1] if we predict stock price increase
    [2] everyone get profit
    [3] high return prediction become truth

   if possibility of event P is really small,

    narrow world string may happens

    [1] if particular team A watch high reward prediction event P to neurons
    [2] team A share high reward prediction event P
    [3] in team A, they share prediction 
    [4] particular team A, may share too small possibility prediction
    [5] particular team A may go into narrow world string, with mistake prediction
    [6] when particular team A confirm true info, logic correct event    = return to world string, may possible

   point    
       possibility of event, changes with additional event

   even if profit prediction become not so high, sometime we may get profit
   [1] world string with true info, have good dictionary
   [2] world string with true info, have super tech
   [3] world string with true prediction, may full with profit
   (= to move into world string with true prediction, looks not so bad)

conclusion
    [1] we have to evade small possibility prediction,

       if we avoid to go into narrow world string.

    [2] sometimes player may mistakes

       if too profitable event prediction add to future prediction.

    [3] if everyone share same prediction,

        some of high return prediction become truth, 
        so not so worry of the problem.

    answerer777